An article in today's paper reports that older people, in particular, retired people are no longer paying off their mortgages, and actually living on the equity in their home - to die without a paid off home. It is an upward trend in the last 25 years or so.
The conventianal wisdom and practice was for homeowners to pay off their mortgage and be as debt free in retirement as possible. Now, that conventional wisdom is being challenged. Some economists say that this may be fine in a boom market, but if housing takes a downturn, then these older people saddled with home equity lines of credit that are tied to current short-term interest rates will not be able to easily downsize should the need arise.
My personal view on this is mixed, but I think overall, the attitude of most Americans toward debt is skewed. I don't know if I have ever had a conversation with anyone where one of their top priorities was to be debt-free. That is, other than my closest friend, who carries virtually no debt. I work amongst people my age, younger and older - and while I do not poll people about their take on debt, the ones I have spoken to do not think it is an issue - or if they do - they say they can't help it. Meanwhile, they drive newer cars, have nicer homes and live beyond their means.
Debt-free vs. being smart: The best decision I ever made was to buy a home. Of course, I am not debt-free, but the equity I have built up, especially in the recent housing boom, is a great asset. What I do with that is the key though. A lot of people think - "Great - I can now "afford" to go out and get more house or more stuff. I can now "afford" to get that $30,000 car instead of the $15,000 more practical car - I can just stuff it onto my HELOC (home equity line of credit) and have ten years to pay it off. (I think 10 years is a common factor in HELOC's - at least it is with mine.) And many of those HELOC's are interest only loans, at least for a period of time.
So - they end up either with more house (do they really need it?) or more stuff and MORE DEBT. The thinking that I have is: "Do I need that $30K car?" or "Do I really NEED that nicer house?" The answer is almost always NO. But, I am in the minority.
But, here's the rub - what does it matter? I think I am better off having a mortgage, and undoubtedly, my monthly expenses for mortgage, taxes, insurance, hoa fees, etc. are more than my friend who still rents. But, my costs are reduced further by tax breaks I get each year - so my taxable income is reduced - and in the end, while my costs out of pocket are higher than my renting friend, the difference is not that great. My advantage is that when I sell, I am also going to get a lot of equity out of the sale, provided I do not go out and mortgage the full amount constantly.
That is exactly the problem with today's thinking. If, due to the rising housing market, you have 50% equity in your home now - that means you could tap into the 30% or more of equity to finance up to 80% of your home value. And the lenders make it so easy. But, in a downturn, then you are financed to such a value that any job change or if you are "forced" to sell, either to take a job in a new town or you choose to sell to get out from under your debt - you might just end up close to upside down or you won't be able to sell and ultimately the price of your home might sink to where you are upside down.
So, why not preach to keep your 50% equity? Why not take the safer route and be in the best position should you need to get out. Then if the real estate market tanks - and you have to take 20% less for your house - you still have a chunk of equity and cash to play with for whatever your need is. Why? Because, all of this refinancing and cashing in on your equity is what keeps an otherwise lacklust economy humming. We seem to have more money to spend, but actually we just end up with more debt. More debt makes us more vulnerable. The prez might say we americans need to save more, but he would not discourage us from taking out the equity in our homes because he knows that is vital to keep the economy moving.
I call it playing it safe - but nowadays, they say - "Why not invest that money?" - and certainly there are strategies to do this - where you use that equity to buy rental properties or invest that money in stocks, bonds, gold, whatever - and if you get the money cheap enough, you make more on that money than having it just sit there untapped. This is riskier and takes more investment acumen than most of us lay people have. Not to say you can't learn it, but I tell you, if you want to get into real estate, fine - but if it is just part-time and you already work 40 plus hours per week, how much can you put in to learning and dealing with your new investment strategy? How many amatuers get in just to lose their shirts?
I am not saying that you should not buy a couple homes to rent out. In some markets, you can charge enough rent to have positive cash flow - but in some, you will need to lose money for a few years for rents to catch up. And as fast as the real estate market zoomed upward in many markets, it may be years before the rents can catch up - they don't go up 30-40% per year because wages cannot go up that fast.
Bottom line - I think it is a dangerous trend that people don't have a goal to live debt-free or with very low debt - and that the thinking is that debt does not matter. We are in a fairly prosperous time right now (even though we are paying a LOT more for goods and gasoline.) - but if there is a downturn, watch out. I am not predicting a big downturn, but even a subtle one could spiral out of control. Markets cycle up and down. But, once it starts and if it gets bad enough, the emotional consumers (including me) will start bailing out - and then the whole cycle down begins.